...It's only been four months since the last one, but here's a quick look at the market since then and some thoughts on the vintage Heuer results at the Sothebys December auction. Having had time ponder it over the weekend, and in the current climate the results were good, some very good, and on a few, some distance ahead of where I would have predicted. There was an issue with one of the watches, and a couple that had smaller issues such as modern hands, which obviously is never helpful as it muddies the water to some degree. However overall I believe the results at the very least met expectations.

The star of the show in terms of achieved price was obviously the McQueen Le Mans 1133B Monaco, and I think in the current climate the achieved price of $1.4m was a great result. I would also suggest that the 2nd exec 3646 with later bezel, McLaren 1553, Camaro Champion, Ferrari LCD, Modena and Carrera 1158 had very strong results, and on the latter the result indicates that perhaps the gold bracelet on the 1158 is now worth at least as much, or even more than the watch itself! The watches (and ephemera) with direct links and provenance to motorsport personalities generally performed well across the board, with realistic premiums over the standard models. The Skipper 7754 with modern hands, and the pair of Carrera "pandas" were perhaps a little behind predictions, and there was a reason the 2446 1st execution achieved a poor result.

Remember that these results also need to be seen in the context of a tough market, which is currently only strong for the best condition pieces of the top level grails, and the reality is that everything below that high bar (1% of the market) whether it be vintage Heuer, Rolex, Omega et al have been under pressure and have seen values fall over the past few years. It's an inescapable fact that there are far less buyers in the market now, post speculators, and although high numbers can still be achieved, the collectors that are buying are very very picky. Remember the market is full of average and even good condition watches, and the gap between those and incredible condition grail pieces and the rest continues to grow and will continue further. Finally just a thought, but  despite decent results I wonder if "themed" auctions in general (whatever the brand or collector involved) have temporarily run out of steam, as many have not met with the success (often unrealistic) that some expect over the past few years? I have some ideas on this but for another day...

The other issue that is worth discussing is that buyers at auction, on top of the other issues around tax and import duty for those not in the country of sale, are faced with lumpy auction fees. When the market was going full steam ahead it was seen as a necessary evil, however at some auction houses they look to be a "bridge too far" for many when the market has run out of steam. Right now I wouldn’t think of placing any of my collection into auction and I wonder how many people with the very best vintage watches are thinking the same. I note that Sothebys has reduced their fees down to 20% which I think is admirable and should be applauded, and I wonder if that is a trend that will be followed by others next year.

Generally modern watches across the board have seen their values fall further, and even some of the independents have started gravitating down now. Have we seen the bottom of that trend? Probably not, as there are a lot of watches out there, and people have significant funds tied up in them, and are probably concerned that they may take further "paper" losses. However there is some evidence that the rise in Crypto has supported the market to some degree this year, and if there was a correction in the price of these "coins" then we may see a further leg down for the modern stuff. It's also worth noting that the availability of new modern watches at RRP has eased significantly, to the point where even I was offered a white gold Daytona after less than a year on the waiting list at my local Rolex authorised dealer. Safe to say at £29300 I declined in the current environment!

The above is why I still champion the very best vintage pieces, and why the majority of my collection remains in such pieces. The very best examples of the rarest grails I believe will continue to be sought after and with very little availability there is nothing from current pricing levels (some way below 2016/17 peak) to suspect a meaningful fall in such pieces. I believe when the market has its next leg up (and I'm not brave enough to suggest when that will be), I think such pieces are the most likely to attract significant attention.

Next update will be May 2025, until then Merry Christmas!