Let's get the market for modern watches out of the way first, which on the secondary market have fallen quite sharply once more, as indeed it did for most of last year. For the likes of Rolex, Patek and a lesser extent Lange and FPJ this has meant at least another 10-20% off the market value (which is often lower than Chrono24 may suggest) For the more mainstream watchmakers such as TAG Heuer this has been repeated, with less demand and just as much supply equalling falling prices, which is a trend that may only halt when interest rates get back to wherever the new norm may be (2-3% I imagine?). Even then a new leg up on modern pieces is hard to see, because the reality is the "spike" on modern stuff was fuelled by a very rare (once in a lifetime) set of circumstances, ie Covid and historically cheap/free money. The current gulf between RRPs which have gone up significantly since pre Covid and secondary market values on mainstream watch brands will likely put off many potential new watch buyers, even with 0% offers. I observed the chatter between collectors that the new TAG Heuer "Seafarer", which would have sold out in a flash some years ago, took considerably longer in the current environment. One wonders where secondary prices will be in 12 months time for that watch, although I'm sure it will fare better than non limited editions (how limited is nearly 1000 units though)? However at least for the high end manufacturers most of their output is either close to retail price or still over, but the days of substantially over only really remain for those very limited "bragging rights" watches that Instagram users want you to know they have. I think the troubles in the new market open up an opportunity for vintage though, when you consider that many modern chronographs are now priced at £7000-£10000, within vintage Heuer there is a large amount of choice at a similar or lower price point which has already had it's price correction. Add in the fact that new watch supply will only exponentially continue into the future, vintage of course won't.

Vintage Heuer as was reported in February has seen some further small falls amongst the non grail pieces that are more common on the market, even if the condition is good. I have watched various well known sellers during this period and noticed the same pieces being reduced in price until they eventually sell, usually within Heuer Price Guide estimates. This cleansing of the market is a positive step and once completed perhaps collectors and the wider market will have a better understanding of where vintage Heuer values sit. Anything that is "wrong" or anything which is in average (worn) or poor condition is a VERY hard sell, and realistically will only sell if priced very keenly or in some cases at the sum of whatever parts can be salvaged.

Values of the best holy grails have not really changed unless the condition is average, in which case they have fallen, as the profile of buyers of these pieces is similar to those who buy the rarest modern Rolex and Patek etc. We are now far enough down the watch collecting rabbit hole that we understand the market for the very best condition grail pieces is by far the most stable, particularly as so few top condition, new to market examples appear now. To highlight this, I cannot think of one new to marker Heuer grail that has surfaced this year and there are always collectors looking for these pieces so demand still outsrips demand for such pieces. When it comes to existing examples, I am aware of a 2446 Seafarer, 3646 Indy, 2447SF and a 2446GMT which have traded at or above guide values but of course as a percentage of the overall market this data is small. I was having a discussion with a fellow collector recently who is looking to re-appraise his collection into far fewer pieces, and he is not alone. Of course the difficulty of selling more ordinary pieces right now is that it's a buyers market, so is hard work, especiaslly so  if you are looking to reduce a collection substantially in volume. I would never hand out any prizes for anyone having a large volume of watches, and have always said it's far better to only own five of the best and rarest than to have 100 pieces.

It will be interesting to see on the more modern end (especially high end) what effect next year's lowering of interest rates in the UK, USA, EU and conversely Japans late to the party rising rates brings to stability or lack of it. The outcome of the USA election and if America avoids any potential recession will also have a bearing I would imagine. However the vintage Heuer market is now finally at fair value (or arguably attractively cheap) when compared to the wider market and so I expect no significant shift from the status quo in the vintage Heuer market over the next six months, and for prices to be stable.