Given all of the above, what has happened to the watch market in the last 6 months? Well not that much! Perhaps the most notable  change in the overall watch market in this period has come in the "new" market for watches such as Patek and Rolex. Because this area of the market is heavily speculator led, the current world issues have affected them more than traditional vintage watch collectors, and so prices have fallen up to 25% in some instances. What is in favour of the vintage pieces in comparison is the market has been constrained for some years with a lack of quality "new to market" pieces, the very opposite of the new market, which sees further supply coming each and every year even if you can't necessarily yet walk into a dealership to a Rolex or Patek! Anyway, enough of that, let's concentrate on vintage Heuer.

This latest auction season has given some indication that there is nothing wrong with the vintage Heuer market, albeit the auction market is not the best or most realistic way to value vintage Heuer and really never has been. You need a constant supply of watches for the values at auction to be meaningful and this has never happened with Heuer in the same way as it does with Rolex, Patek, Omega etc. It's a shame for the brand, because it limits visibility and consistency but the reality is that for every one stunning condition 1960s Heuer Carrera or Autavia, there are probably fifty times the Omega and Rolex watches for the auction houses to sell. The results therefore are always something of a mixed bag, from the ludicrous highs of an honest condition PVD Monaco selling for circa £90,000 (including fees) when the private market would not value it at more than £30,000 gives a good indication. Also at the same auction (Phillips) a Chronomatic 1163MH Autavia sold for £35000 which was down notably on the very same watch being sold a few years ago at Christies, although that fall probably has more to do with the automatic Heuers having fallen a little out of favour compared to the 1960s models. Christies themselves had a mint Skipper 7754 which performed as well as expected for such a grail piece and the "Jim Rockford" Carrera which was purchased for the TAG Heuer museum. There was also an early all lume hand 3646 Autavia at Phillips, however the hands and bezel let this lot down considerably and so it performed reasonably at best (I would expect the very best to be far higher). The above (albeit small selection) tells us several things about the auction market. There are people buying at the top auctions who do not know the market (and are not Heuer collectors per se) and also there are machinations involved, perhaps a brand themselves paying over the odds for a watch because it is an inexpensive way of marketing. Of course the most obvious takeaway from the top auction scene is that condition and/or "beautiful" patina and provenance usually matters the most for watch values.

Generally in the open market (internet auction sites, Chrono24, dealers and collector to collector) values for vintage Heuers have been static, and the guide has not moved meaningfully over the past months. The 1970s Autavia remain perhaps harder to sell than 1960s models, with some values coming down (even the very best such as the ex Pawn Stars decimal Siffert and and Exotic 1163v have struggled) and overall the gap between the best condition and the worst is growing further on all Heuer watches. However these trends have been well documented for some time and will come as no surprise to anyone who collects vintage Heuer. I see no new trends at present, only the now well established ones, where the best condition and rarest 1960s Autavia and Carrera generally dominate the Heuer market. The appetite for the best and rarest 1960s pieces remains strong between collectors (both old and new) and several grail 3646, 2446 and 2447 pieces have changed hands this year at guide or above.

What does the short term future hold? I suspect there may be more pressure on those new Rolex and Patek (some of which are bound up in stock market/crypto/trading success and grey market financing) than vintage pieces, mainly because they were speculator led. I view current vintage Heuer values as fair or even undervalued against the rest of the vintage market and because of this I don't see values coming down meaningfully anytime soon. Indeed much of the vintage Heuer catalogue seems very good value, especially watches that are not necessarily covered in the price guide. 1970s Carrera, Montreal, Silverstone and the non McQueen Monaco's look value against the ever inflating price of a new watch but so too do the 1960s Camaro and non grail Carrera and Autavia from the 1960s. Supply remains very tight and during the last 12 months I have been offered fewer nice pieces than at any time in the last 14 years and I have only been able to add one Heuer to my collection. With the world markets entering a more difficult period I suspect that we will see the very best physical assets continue to do well, even in times that may be tough for the general population, because the people who have done very well investing during the past decade will be wanting to hedge their risk away from those markets which are much more volatile now.

However when all is said and done, and even though this is a price guide and everyone wants their watches to rise in value, I prefer to think that buyers of vintage Heuers buy them because they are amongst the most beautiful and rarest chronographs ever made, with some of the best back history. I also hope that current collectors who have been involved for a while enjoy the fact that although their watches are much more valuable than a decade ago, the prices in comparison to some other brands still allow for new additions. Heuer may not be the flavour of the month like back in 2016/17 but there's a lot to like about being a little more under the radar than some of those other brands, and being able to wear them in public without the constant fear of being mugged ;)

The next guide update will be the end of the year (Nov/Dec)