The guide now shows some different condition headings, none ever perfectly describe a watch, but these are better suited (because a superficially mint watch may not in many ways the top of the collecting tree). EXCELLENT, GOOD and FAIR take over the condition headings from MINT, GOOD, AVERAGE. There are also updated notes in the “Guide Definitions” section which mentions that both New Old Stock watches and the best of the best regards condition, patina, tropical dials etc will exceed the values in the “Excellent” column, although in reality this is less than 1% of vintage pieces. Also note that a watch in poor condition will be lower than one in the FAIR column. Added to this the collectibitly grades have been upgraded, to better reflect the "pecking order". Also remember this is a guide, not the "bible" so it should be used as a "yard stick" for the market only ;)

This update also sees many more watches rated as XXXX / XXXXX etc. This does not mean they are now all worth PVD Monaco or Chronomatic Siffert levels, but it does indicate that they are the rarest/most desired references and that values on these pieces vary more so than other Heuers on condition and originality. Originality and condition is now more important and will only get more important going forward. If we look at mature markets such as Rolex the difference in values between the conditions and originality on a Paul Newman Daytona 6241 or on 6542 GMT or Gilt 5512 etc, is huge. They are rare watches (for Rolex) but actually they are very rare in any context if they are all correct and in top conditions and with mint dials and the difference in value and collectibility is enormous. For example a 6241 Paul Newman is a £90-100k watch if the parts are original and correct plus the dial is unmarked and the lume plots are all original and intact. I would say only 1 in 100 would be in this condition, and these watches are highly prized and would sell easily, in contrast one with a poor dirty and marked dial with dirty, degraded, lume (or re-lumed, as many are) with a later bezel could be £50-55k. But actually this £50-55k watch is much harder to sell, as a true best of breed collector is not interested in this watch. Just look at 90% of the PN’s on retailers websites, many have been there for some time and for good reason... The same is true on all the best vintage pieces. I expect this "condition and originality" issue to become more and more critical and as I have mentioned before the gap between the best and the rest will grow further still. The best of breed, will not be polished, will have close to perfect dials with original lume on the hands and dial, and in attractive condition (correct and nice condition bezels for the reference) the serials will be in the correct range and have all original parts, this is not an opinion, it is now fact. Also watches with perfect “attractive" patina, or perfect tropical dials will become more sought after, but again, tropical dials are not all the same, some are uneven or are so dark brown they cannot truly be called tropical dials. All of the above is happening already, the flight to quality is here to stay. This is not to say that watches that do not conform to this are not worthy of owning, wearing, collecting, just that these are not the watches that will be coveted by the top collectors and so are sold on price not condition. Dial and hand lume is also of crucial important, because so many watches have been serviced several times since birth and each occasion was a chance for a watch to have new hands applied, or re-lumed hands and for owner to request dial lume to be re-done so the watch would glow in the dark or underwater...Perfectly acceptable on a tool watch for usage but now years later a very important consideration for collectors. 

Which are the watches that are seeing the strongest demand? Refer back to the guide update which has the top 25 Heuers, these are the models we all search for, I don’t see this changing too much, because the market has already defined the “Holy Grail” references. We may see only 1-2 of these new into the market each year, and maybe on some, no new discoveries for several years, collectors know this and know they may never find another and so are not willing to let them go. As one Autavia collector used to say it becomes a matter of “Demand Fulfilment”. However some of these watches do change hands in the market, and at least one of most of the Top 25 list has seen some movement in ownership this year. There is also some strengthening across the board on 1960s Carrera and all screw-back case Autavia are seeing high demand. It does remain true that the three “core” models are seeing the most demand, however Skippers, Silverstone (which are scarcer than they once were) and "lesser" Monacos and most other models in nice all original condition look value and are being sought out. If you can find a 1133G, 73633G/B, 1533G/B Monaco with mint dials they all look good value, as in reality they have only edged up over the past few years whilst the Transitional, Chronomatic and PVD’s hogged the limelight. 

I leave you with one note of caution, it is now clear to me that interest rates in the UK and USA (unsure about EU) will rise sooner than later (probably within the next 12 months). It remains to be seen what impact a future base rate of 3% (by end of the decade I would assume) might have on the growing number of investors in colletibles. Only time will tell but no market escalates smoothly for ever...(update 11/2016, who knows when!!)

The next update will be in November 2015, happy hunting until then!