I remember thinking that after the crazy market of 2016 had passed and values fell back down to more realistic and sustainable levels, that the next cycle for Heuer may take five years to arrive and it seems as if that may well prove to be the case. If you look back at the vintage watch market over the past 20 years, it ebbs and flows and goes through phases whether this is for Heuer, Rolex, Omega or any other brand. I remember back in 2015 when a 6239/6241 "Paul Newman" Daytona was £80,000 for a top (watch only) example, compared to perhaps £180,000-200,000 today. At that time many Rolex values had been stable for a number of years, after gradually picking up from the decline they had seen during the financial crisis in 2008. In 2015 Heuer was approaching the peak of that cycle (late 2016) and it could be said that vintage Heuer was making vintage Rolex look good value back then! However, between 2016 and now, with vintage Heuer declining and with vintage Rolex values having advanced significantly, we have reached the point where many of the rare and desirable vintage Heuers again look comparably good value. I suspect we are at the start of another phase, and anecdotally I have never been asked to sell some of my core collection as much as I have in the past six months, which is always a fairly good barometer of the market outlook! Whether the new phase resembles the last one or follows a much more orderly and sustainable path is hard to say but I hope for the latter. Certainly many of the speculators have moved on to relatively modern watches, paying hefty sums to own watches from the constrained market that is modern Patek, Rolex etc etc...

Now that balance has been found and the vintage Heuer market has stabilised, prices are rising once more and it appears that a growing number of collectors have started buying back into the brand again, although this time perhaps being led by UK/EU collectors rather than USA and Asia of the last phase, although this might be partly currency related at the moment with the relatively weak US$. Echoing the entire vintage watch market, the pieces that are most in demand are the holy grails: you could say that everything contained in the Heuer Superstars book - which highlights the top 30+ vintage Heuer Autavia, Carrera and Monaco grails - are on the top of collectors' check lists (See the link at the bottom of the page to read about the book). However, more good news for vintage Heuer is that it continues to attract a new young group of collectors, with my "heuervintage" Instagram account showing a 30% age range split for 25-34 yr olds and 35% for 35–44-year-olds, both higher than the older age range I find myself in! This is good news and many of these younger people have come into the vintage arena from buying, selling and owning TAG Heuers. Initially they may not be able to afford the grails but, when their disposable income changes, we all know the watch collection has a habit of changing to reflect this.

Heuer Price Guide users should note that the values shown are in £GB and are now updated continually rather than twice a year. They have been rising steadily since the beginning of 2021 and much of this has been informed by collector-to-collector data, with barely any truly top level Heuer grails making it into auction, apart from the beautiful 2446SF that Sotheby's New York had back in February. I believe had that been a "normal" pre Covid sale with people able to handle the watch and bid "live" we would have seen an even higher price, and I know several collectors tried to bid in the final minutes and had connection issues. However the $94500 achieved was an excellent result for a watch that so few people know about and one that had a heavy dial patina. The May auctions also contained a few some interesting pieces, although it shows some care should be taken when selecting your auction house to sell with, Phillips seeing results far in advance of market rates for their Heuer selection. There have also been some large prices paid via various EU dealers for grail Heuers in top condition since the turn of the year, although precise verifiable numbers are not always easy to discern. However, it is clear that the very best condition watches, which perhaps accounts for less than 5% of the available market, is what the top collectors all fight for. The premium for truly mint or "new old stock" seems to be at an all-time high, but remember that true new old stock pricing is not reflected in the guide and is always at a premium over and above mint. New old stock means 99% original condition but can be confused by some sellers to mean a watch which just has the original case bevels in place ;) Mint condition does allow for some minor level of case marks, new old stock does not. 

Of course, the largest demand - and therefore largest price increases - continues to be for the "crown jewels" especially the 1960s Autavia and the Carrera, with rarity and condition of most importance. There is no doubt that the 1960s output continues to trump the 1970s and 80s in the eye of the wider market, and I expect that to continue. But as someone once said "A rising tide lifts all boats" so the majority of values have risen to a degree, although fair condition watches have mostly remained where they were, highlighting again the importance of condition, especially in regards to the dial. The average guide movement upwards is between 5-10%. Also note that the guide now includes a valuation condition that reads "Poor - Values lower for notably damaged dials" which tells you that even fair condition watches require the dial to be in at least "decent" condition. It goes without saying that all the values assume original parts and so again I draw attention to TAG Heuer service bezels; the numbers of these in the market continue to grow but these bezels do not have quite the same finish, have flat/thin numerals and have non serif script compared to the originals. I see many of these originating via the EU (and not only via TAG Heuer) into the hands of world-wide owners who do not know what they have and values for such service bezels (as would be the case on any vintage brand) are much lower.

To sum up, most values have gone up to some degree at the "mint" and "good" level, but collectors should note that the gap between the bottom and top levels continues to widen, and I see no end in sight for this trend. The next market update will be in November...