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May 2019
The market for Vintage Heuer has been largely stable this year, with no meaningful further falls, however I still believe (as I said last time) the unrealistic pricing of "old stock" by many retailers and collectors is not helping because much of it is priced at the lofty levels of 2016/17 and still for sale 6-12 months after being first offered.
The fact is that good condition pieces realistically priced will sell well, and grail pieces reasonably priced are actually still very much in demand, with top collectors actively hunting this out, because they can spot a good opportunity. Realistic pricing means not the "peak" the market saw in 2016/17, which at any rate most of the collectors knew to be a false market. As an example at that time a mint condition 2446 3rd execution Rindt was thought by some to be worth £30,000 or at least that is what they may may have quoted you. The reality was that £20,000+ was a more likely figure even then, and today the value is £15000-£17500 so although the perception is the market has fallen away substantially in reality it hasn't fallen as far as some imagine and many of these "market commentators" are not "on the ball". However it is true that anything that is incorrect or in very average condition (poor dials, over polished cases for example) is a very hard sell and the price could easily be 50-60%+ lower than the good condition option. The two highest profile sales back in those peak years were an Autavia 3646 Indy and an all lume hand 2446 1st execution Autavia which sold for in the region of $200,000. Those sales were peak market, but both watches were the very best condition, and comparing them to (for example) the 2446 1st exec that sold via Phillips in Hong kong last year would be wrong, because the samples were the polar opposite of the condition range. I would still expect the very best to fetch north of $125,000 today, but have not seen a grade A example for sale since 2016.
In reality the softening of the market from 2016/17 should not be a surprise because the market had risen hugely over the prior 6-7 years, in fact many hundreds of percent and I believe it will be seen to be a healthy "start stop reset" in a few years time. Most brands have seen these tougher market conditions, for example Speedmasters and UG Compax and Tri Compax (except for the exotics) are also lower than they once were. The brand which has seen vintage prices move up most in the past two years is Rolex, and that is because they had been largely stable for a period prior to that and in my opinion other watches had risen too close for comfort to this market bellweather. Modern watches (I count this as 1986 onwards on Heuer ;)) could be seen as the next sector that overheats, currently modern Rolex, Patek and others seem to be priced at unrealistic levels considering their rarity in comparison to vintage. Time will tell of course...
The guide stays at the same levels as January, and it is good to see the stability and support for the Heuer market. If the general vintage market moves upward over the next 12-24 months then I would expect Heuer to rise at a similar rate, however as the general market has outperformed pretty much any other asset over the past decade predicting what happens next is not an easy task, I suspect a general "pause" is in order. For want of a better word "standard" Heuers such as Autavia 1163v, Montreals, 1133 Monaco, Silverstone, 1970s Carrera etc etc have not really changed in value for the past 3-4 years, and so did not have any room to fall, they can still be picked up at very attractive prices considering their vintage beauty and especially in comparison to what a modern TAG Heuer may cost you today. However the main area of focus for top collectors remains the Carrera (especially the grail contrasting 2447) and the rarer screw back Autavia from the 1960s, all of which now look to be great value when compared to vintage Daytonas, which was after all one of the reasons for the rise of some of these watches in the first place ;)
Heuer Prices For Autavia Carrera and Monaco and market commentary
Vintage Heuer Price Guide Market Update for Autavia, Carrera and Monaco watches
The vintage Heuer price guide and market update for Autavia, Carrera and Monaco watches
The December 2022 Heuer price guide update
Information on the Heuer Autavia Orange Boy 1163
Vintage Heuer values in 2022 for Autavia, Carrera, Monaco
Information on the Heuer 2446 Seafarer for Abercrombie and Fitch
Vintage Heuer watch market update, Autavia, Carrera and Monaco values
Information on the 1st execution Heuer Autavia 2446 with all lume hands
Information on the vintage Heuer Skipper 7754 aka "Skipperera"